History proves that artificial states do not survive. Sooner or later they disappear because they do not have popular consent, but are based on centralized imposition and oppression. Thus, Spain is today disintegrating with the desire of a majority of Catalans to recover their own country. The Basques may follow. The UK, already broken up in 1921 by the secession of a majority of the Irish who wanted their freedom back from the British myth, is soon to be further dismantled by a majority of Scots. One day Wales and then England too will recover their sovereignty from Norman-British oppression – though that may only be at the Second Coming.
As for Germany, the Tsar’s plan after the coming Russian victory in 1917 was to dismantle the Satanic unification of Bismarck which led directly to huge European wars of unheard of bloodshed. And the artificial and violence-guaranteeing divisions of the Middle East imposed by Great Britain and France on the Ottoman Empire nearly a century ago are daily being undone as civil wars or strife rage in Syria, Iraq, the Lebanon and Turkey. Now, another similar artificial State, which has also existed for less than 100 years and without popular consent, is collapsing. This is the Ukraine.
The Coming Collapse of the Ukraine
The word ‘Ukraine’ simply means borderland, ‘the marches’. In history it has been used to describe many marginal Slavic areas, from the borderlands of Serbia to the borderlands of Poland and Kazakhstan. To create a ‘State’ from marginal borderlands is never realistic. A viable State always need a centre that has consensus, popular consent. That is something that the newly-founded ‘Ukraine’, achieving independence only a generation ago, has never had.
Formed in the 1920s from Novorossiya (south-western Russia), Malorossiya (Little Russia, where the language is ‘Surzhik’, a Russian dialect), in 1939 from eastern Poland (Galicia – the only authentic Ukraine or borderland) and in 1944 from part of Hungary (now miscalled ‘Transcarpathia’, but before that called ‘Ruthenia’ and part of pre-1939 Czechoslovakia) and part of Romania, such an artificial conglomerate cannot survive. And this despite the billions of dollars that successive US governments have pumped into its life support machine over the last decade or so.
Though the US elite has given plenty of money to the Ukraine’s artificial centre in Kiev, where they have established a Galician puppet government for their new banana republic, in fact the regions of the Ukraine decide all the questions. They do not need Poroshenko. The Americans only need their mythical Ukrainian State for propaganda purposes. The US that controls the Ukrainian government and all its policies wants to maintain a single player, which they can show to the world and say: Here is the Ukraine.
They do not want Odessa, Zaporizhia, Uzhgorod, Lviv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, but the whole of the Ukraine. However, the Ukraine is in fact composed of precisely a patchwork of local territories controlled by corrupt oligarchs, in much the same way as the rival principalities which warred with each other in the 12th century, forcing a new centre to rise up and take control from its anarchy – Moscow. History is repeating itself. In reality, the Americans have to play with Filatov in Dnepropetrovsk, the Balogh brothers in Transcarpathia, Kolomoysky in the east, Saakashvili in Odessa and the others, and forget about Kiev and its Western oligarchs.
The inherently unstable Ukraine is no longer sustainable, indeed no longer a State, and continues to exist only to the extent that it is recognized by external players. Outside Kiev, it has no reality. Although it is unprofitable for Washington, Brussels and Berlin to preserve Ukrainian Statehood, to admit its dissolution would be to lose face altogether. But since the US, the EU and their IMF puppets have now not found $3 billion to pay off Ukraine’s present debts to Russia, they will certainly not find the tens and hundreds of billions of dollars required to fund the existence of the bankrupt Ukraine for another 5-10 years.
Everyone understands that the Poroshenko regime is not something that is sustainable – it is not alive any more, the recent local elections in Ukraine have shown that the central regime and its secret police retainers cannot compete with the regional elites. In all regions the elections returned local and regional elites. Therefore, when Biden came to the Ukraine he said that there was no longer any need to hold elections, he did not want the reality, that the Ukraine is an artificial conglomerate of provinces, to surface.
US politicians, who have more education and experience than their Ukrainian counterparts, are well aware that any subsequent elections will lead to the disintegration of Ukraine. This process can be slowed down, but it cannot be ignored, and though it may be possible to to maintain the State with intravenous injections of US cash, it is no longer possible to stop the process of decay and reverse it.
Although the ‘Western world’ can still pretend that the Ukraine exists as a country, for some time, even if nominally, collapse is inevitable. However, the fact is that a real State is not just a newly-invented anthem, coat of arms and flag. It is an internal consensus and that exists only when the government represents its peoples. As the Americans rightly proclaim: ‘No taxes without representation’. And that does not exist in the Ukraine.
Here is a situation where central government, that refused confederation and so began a civil war and massacring its own people, has lost control and so is no longer able to attract foreign funding. The economy is in ruins and funding a budget through taxing an incredibly poor and dissident population is impossible. The centre has no importance for the regions depend only on the regional elites and their real and powerful capabilities. The question is: What happens next?
Despite the hysterical and self-justifying claims of the Poroshenko clique, Russia has not invaded or intervened in the Ukraine in any way in the last two years. Some have asked why Russia has not done so amid the chaos of the Ukraine whereas it has done so in the chaos of Syria. The answer is simply because Soviet Russia, with its invasions and interventions in other countries, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, is long since dead. Today’s Russia only intervenes when it is asked to do so – as was the case in Syria. Russia has not been invited to intervene in the Ukraine, so it has not done so.
The unsubtle brutality of old Soviet governments is long gone. Today’s Russia is much more intelligent. As the Russian proverb says about messes: ‘Don’t touch it and it does not smell’. In other words, it waits until the apple tree falls and then picks the apples. And that is what is happening in the Ukraine. It will collapse all by itself and then Russia will pick up the pieces that freely wish to join it or become part of its Eurasian sphere of influence as independent entities, like Belarus to the north or Kazakhstan and Armenia to the south. In the case of the Ukraine, this means not just the already free Crimea, but the east, south and north – most of the country that is called the ‘Ukraine’. And this time may be coming very soon, for the present process of collapse will continue into 2016, as the ‘Ukraine’ returns to its real and pre-Soviet roots.